Today starts the Champions League quarter-finals, and the first two pairs of the round of sixteen will compete this evening. Before the matches start on the field, ESPN, using their "Soccer Power Index" calculations, provides a statistical analysis of the quarter-final matches.
"Barcelona" - "Atletico"
According to SPI, "Atletico" in this stage got the least favorable opponents, and their opponents in this match would advance to the next stage 82% of the time. Meanwhile, if they played against the other three out of seven opponents, the Madrid team would be considered the favorite in the match. As for the spells of the Barcelona club, they were more favorable to them - according to SPI, "Atletico" is the fourth least favorable team that the Catalans could have drawn.
The last and only time these teams met in the Champions League was in the quarter-finals of the 2013-2014 season, and then "Atletico" won the victory with an overall result of 2:1. Since that match, "Barca" has won six consecutive head-to-head matches (goal ratio 12:5). In these six matches, "Barcelona" scored more than two goals twice, while the other teams only scored three goals against "Atletico" in 95 matches.
Without a doubt, "Barcelona" is demonstrating excellent results in various statistical categories this season, but in these matches, the passing statistics among opponents' defenders stand out the most. "Barca" has twice as many of such passes as any other team in the "La Liga" championship (149), and also thanks to such passes, they created the most opportunities (34) and scored the most goals (12). Meanwhile, "Atletico" is the team that defends against such passes the best - in all matches, they only allowed their opponents to create nine chances that turned into one goal.
"Bayern" - "Benfica"
According to SPI calculations, "Benfica" should not have had an advantage against any quarter-final participant, but the spells really didn't help them. Meanwhile, for the German champions, these were the best possible spells, and SPI sends them to the quarterfinals against the Portuguese team in 87% of all matches.
Although "Bayern" has many weapons in attack, the most prominent in statistics are the results of Robert Lewandowski. He ranks second in goals (8), shots (33) and shots on target (17), trailing only Cristiano Ronaldo in these categories.
The most difficult task for the "Benfica" team will be to create good chances near the opponents' goal. They average 19.9 meters in shot distance in the Champions League, which is the highest indicator among all quarter-final participants. Additionally, the Lisbon team, out of all 16 knockout round participants, had the highest percentage of shots on goal from outside the penalty area (60% of all shots).
"Paris Saint-Germain" - "Manchester City"
Both teams can be pleased that they avoided "Bayern," "Real," or "Barcelona" teams, and SPI predicts a tough match between them. Favoring in SPI calculations is the PSG team, which has advanced to the next stage 60% of the time.
Although all eyes will be on the teams' leaders - Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Sergio Aguero, it should be interesting to watch the battle for balls sent into the penalty area. Both teams lead in creating chances from crosses in their national championships, and "Man City" only trails Madrid's "Real" in this category among the Top 5 league teams.
Both teams also excel in winning aerial duels. PSG not only leads the "Ligue 1" championship, but also ranks second in this category among the Top 5 league teams, only behind the "Juventus" players. "Manchester City" wins 55% of such duels and ranks second in this category in the "Premier" league.
"Wolfsburg" - "Real"
Looking at the SPI calculations, "Wolfsburg" drew the second worst opponent in the quarter-finals - they would have had worse chances only against "Barcelona". In these spells, "Real" was lucky - "Wolfsburg" is the second most favorable opponent among all quarter-final participants, and Madrid's team would only have better chances playing against "Benfica." In this pair, SPI sent the Madrid "Real" club to the semifinals 84% of the time.
The key to victory for the "Wolfsburg" team could be Julian Draxler. In the 30 Champions League and "Bundesliga" matches played this season, when Draxler stood out, "Wolfsburg" never lost (6 wins, 2 draws). However, when they left the defense without a goal, the team did much worse (7 wins, 4 draws, 11 losses).
In the Madrid team, the most important player in statistics is Cristiano Ronaldo. He not only leads the team (and the entire Champions League) in goals, shots, and shots on target, but is also the player who has made the most assistive passes for the "Real" team (4) and has created the most chances for his teammates (19).
