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Journalist Martynas Pocius presents his final predictions for the European Football Championship (you can read other newspapers here).
It's the last day of EURO 2012 and the final bets, so today my motto is "all or nothing." In the second semi-final, I placed such bets that in case of losing, the remaining round bets would be a round sum for me. It increased because 3 out of 4 events unfolded as I planned: I predicted that Italy would commit more fouls, Germany would have more ball control, and both teams would use all possible substitutions. The riskiest bet I made, predicting "dry" German goals, completely failed, but it didn't stop me from increasing the budget by almost 26 Lt in profit.
So, ladies and gentlemen, it's not only the final of the championship but also in my bets. As television commentators like to say, the tension has reached its peak. I risk completing this experiment with a hole in my pocket, so the antipathies towards Spain must be forgotten. Today it's all business, so there are few bets and all my hopes are riding on them. Wish me luck, and I wish everyone a great final.
Balance: 623.65 Lt
Spain ball control (%) more > 57.5 (coef. 1.85). Bet - 300 Lt
To fulfill this forecast, only one simple thing is needed - that Spain doesn't joke around and do what they did in the quarterfinals. The hope is that unlike the French team, Italy has players who can hit the goal, so withdrawing and giving control to the Italians could be too risky. Portugal also showed that active pressing could limit the ball control of the Spanish players, but the cost of that was fatigue, which made the Portuguese drag their feet during extra time. C. Prandelli is an excellent strategist and has demonstrated his abilities abundantly, so I believe Italy will not fundamentally change the style of play they showed in the group stage clashes.
Draw 0:0 or 1:1 in regular time (coef. 6.00 and 7.00). Bet - two at 150 Lt each.
I don't reinvent the wheel and go with the majority of football fans who predict draws. However, by betting only on the match outcome, the coefficient is 3.10, so I decided to split the bet amount into two parts and place bets on two exact scores: if there is a goalless draw, the profit received would be 20 Lt lower in total compared to a regular bet. However, if the teams score once each, such a bet would be more beneficial. In any other case of productivity, I would be “on thin ice.” I will try to take a risk. Nevertheless, the cost of mistakes today is enormous, so it is hoped that the national teams will first and foremost focus on the safety of their goal and only then await the smile of success on the other side of the field.
Mario Balotelli will score a goal (coef. 2.95). Bet - 23.65 Lt.
V. del Bosque is doing everything to ensure that F. Torres, for whom I bet against before the start of the tournament, does not become the owner of the "golden boot." Therefore, I expect a goal from the one for whom, in case of a decisive goal, the monuments would already be started to be built in Italy.
