The fight for the playoffs is boiling: which third teams will make it to the quarterfinals in the European Championship?

2024-06-23 11:39 © imago-images

After 2 rounds of the European football championship, the fight for the last tickets to the knockout stage is heating up. In the third championship in a row, one question is particularly relevant: who will advance to the knockout stage among the four best teams finishing in third place?

Teams that finish in third place in the groups must have at least 3 or 4 points to proceed. 4 points would almost guarantee advancement, 2 points probably wouldn't be enough, and 3 points are in the risky zone - in this case, goal difference also matters.

In this case, groups can be divided based on the chances that after the 3rd round, the third-place team will have 4 points or 3 points.

Chances (from lowest to highest) that the third-place team in the group will have 4 points:

Group D (Netherlands, France, Austria, Poland)

Group E (Belgium, Romania, Slovakia, Ukraine)

Group A (Germany, Switzerland, Scotland, Hungary)

Group F (Portugal, Turkey, Czech Republic, Georgia)

Group B (Spain, Italy, Croatia, Albania)

Group C (England, Denmark, Slovenia, Serbia)

Chances (from lowest to highest) that the third-place team in the group will have 3 points:

Group E (100%)

Group F (100%)

Group D

Group A

Group B

Group C

Team 3 in Group C has the least chances of advancing to the next stage. In this group, there were 3 draws in 4 matches, so there is a high chance that the 3rd team will have only 2 points.

In Groups E and D, teams should be positive. Austria already knows that their Poland will not be overtaken, and in Group E, with 4 teams having 3 points each, aiming for at least a draw would greatly increase their chances of advancing.

Today, the teams in Group A will finish their battles. Neither Scotland nor Hungary have a good goal difference. However, Scotland has 1 point and 3 points at most would bring them closer to the knockout stage. Neither team would have enough draws, and Hungary may not have enough wins, as their goal difference is poor.

In Group B, Italy losing to Croatia would leave them in third place, unless Spain loses to Albania. With a loss to Croatia, Italy would risk their spot in the European championship. They would be third with a not particularly good goal difference and would have to wait for the results of other groups.

In Group F, three teams can still take third place. However, it is most likely that this will be Turkey or the Czech Republic. The standings of these teams will be clarified in the final round. However, after a painful loss to Portugal, Turkey would need at least a draw, as third place with 3 points and a poor goal difference would probably not be enough to progress.

The following teams have already secured their place in the knockout stage: Germany, Spain, Portugal.